Machine Learning for Churn Prediction & Demand Forecasting
We live in an age where we can make fast accurate business decisions based on predictions derived from advanced machine learning algorithms, all made possible with the rise of artificial intelligence. Now more than ever businesses need to find ways to manage their demand and reduce customer churn. One of the best ways to do so is to build and use machine learning algorithms that are able to identify areas of improvement and provide insight into each of these metrics.
Demand forecasting is the process of predicting future demand for a product or service. It is a crucial aspect of business intelligence, as it allows organizations to plan for future production and inventory needs, and make informed decisions about pricing, marketing, and other aspects of their operations.
Machine learning algorithms used in demand forecasting
a. Time Series: Time series algorithms are used to forecast demand based on past patterns in the data. These algorithms can handle irregular patterns and outliers in the data, making them well suited for demand forecasting.
b. ARIMA: ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) is a time series algorithm that models the past values of a time series to forecast future values. It is particularly useful for demand forecasting because it can handle irregular patterns and outliers in the data.
c. Neural Networks: Neural networks are machine learning models inspired by the structure of the human brain. They can be used to forecast demand by analyzing patterns in historical data.
Churn prediction, also known as customer attrition prediction, is the process of identifying customers who are likely to stop doing business with an organization. It is an important aspect of customer relationship management, as it allows organizations to identify and target at-risk customers before they leave, in order to retain their business.
Machine learning algorithms used in churn prediction
a. Logistic Regression: Logistic regression is a widely used algorithm for binary classification, making it a popular choice for churn prediction. It can be used to predict the probability of a customer leaving based on their past behavior and demographic information.
b. Random Forest: Random forest is a decision tree-based algorithm that creates multiple decision trees and combines their predictions to make a final prediction. It is often used for churn prediction because it can handle large amounts of data and account for non-linear relationships between variables.
c. Gradient Boosting: Gradient boosting is an ensemble algorithm that creates a sequence of decision trees, each of which is designed to correct the mistakes of the previous tree. It is a powerful algorithm that can handle large amounts of data and is often used for churn prediction.
Tools and platforms you can use to implement these algorithms
TensorFlow: TensorFlow is an open-source library for machine learning that can be used to create a wide variety of algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting.
scikit-learn: scikit-learn is a popular library for machine learning in Python. It provides a wide range of machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting.
Keras: Keras is an open-source library for deep learning that can be used to create neural networks. It can be used to create neural networks for demand forecasting.
Statsmodels: Statsmodels is a library for the estimation of many different statistical models. It can be used to create time series models like ARIMA for demand forecasting.
Bigquery ML: Bigquery ML is a SQL-based tool that allows you to create and run machine learning models directly in BigQuery, without the need to move data. It provides a variety of pre-built models for classification, regression, and time series forecasting, and allows you to create your own custom models using SQL.
BigQuery ML is where I would start if your background is in marketing, it was easier for me to start using BQML because I was already using BigQuery for data analysis with SQL, I would also look into Vertex AI and Google AutoML if you would like a more beginner-friendly approach.